Nice pun in your title! Thank you for reminding people that combustion engines also improve over time. Climate activists like to discuss about battery and solar panel improvements, but they often implicitly assume that competing technologies do not improve over time.
This Canadian company, Edison Motors, started out converting logging trucks to HEVs which is a excellent application of hybrid tech. Mostly they are hauling logs from mountains down into valleys which is dangerous and terrible on brakes. Using regenerative braking actually charges the battery up on the downhill trip. The same is true of mining trucks hauling from mountain ore bodies or coal seams. You may not need any fuel energy, gravitational potential energy is sufficient.
Now they are branching out into hybridizing snowplows and oil service rigs.
Toyota is impressive in their commitment to hybrid tech over the pure electric vehicle hype.
EVs have a limited place as short trip 2nd (or 3rd) cars for those with a dedicated change spot garage or driveway).
That said, EVs have some brutal hidden costs.
EVs absolutely DEVOUR tires. This can be mitigated by choosing non-performace tires, but EV weight and the laws of physics are not changing.
In cold weather, expect range reductions of 25% +. Extreme cold (<15° F) requires constant charging if parked for long periods. Tesla's Model 3 battery FAQ states:
"If you allow the Battery to discharge to 0%, other components may become damaged or require replacement (for example, the low voltage battery). In these cases, you are responsible for repair and/or transporting expenses. Discharge-related expenses are not covered by the warranty or under the Roadside Assistance policy."
Battery replacement is a pricey requirement at around 10 years. The price is the equivalent of transmission or two in an ICE car.
You pretty much distilled it with those points. Along the same lines, EV pick-up trucks are probably the worst offenders. Good for hauling leaves (maybe). And forget about AC!
China is moving to all BEVs. They are now up to 37% of their light duty vehicle sales. That's not due to subsidies and government mandates. What does China care, they're building coal power plants like there is no tomorrow. A lot of people just like them better.
In China people don't drive long distances as is much more common than in America. So that greatly reduces the range problem. So they use the less expensive LiFePO4 batteries which use much less critical minerals and also have longer lifetimes albeit lower energy densities.
That's happening a lot in China (and elsewhere) due to a severe economic downturn, (thank you Overlords for your Covid Plandemic). Fewer people can afford vehicles and I imagine even in China the low end is dominated by ICE vehicles, what people can afford.
Yep. European brands suffering too - Porsche is in deep trouble with almost nil Taycan sales and recalls over there. The Chinese are now buying their own cars
It's interesting that even the hard core green writer of Steve's Substack agrees that the middle ground of hybrids seems to be winning the fight. My son just bought a hybrid C-RV.
Nice article, very interesting. So often disruption is accompanied by unwarranted value destruction as incumbents do foolish things out of fear or to appear more cutting edge than they are. Sometimes the most prudent course of action is to keep doing what you have been doing, and not interrupt your competition while it makes crippling errors.
Volkswagen has just unveiled a breakthrough in combustion technology that could reshape the performance and efficiency of turbocharged gasoline engines. Enter the "Budack" cycle, a twist on the well-known Atkinson cycle, designed to push the boundaries of what’s possible in engine optimization.
At its core, the Budack cycle is deceptively simple: instead of the conventional early intake valve closure seen in the Atkinson cycle’s compression stroke, Volkswagen's innovation brings this early closure to the intake stroke itself. This seemingly small shift reduces the amount of air the piston needs to compress, slashing energy losses and boosting fuel efficiency.
The payoff is clear. With less air to compress, the engine can operate more efficiently, yet still maintain performance when needed. That’s where the magic of variable camshafts comes in. Under high loads, the camshafts extend valve timing to keep the intake valves open longer, unleashing additional power when the engine demands it. The Budack cycle, in essence, delivers a harmonious blend of fuel economy and punchy performance—offering a new standard for modern combustion engines.
Meanwhile, the electric vehicle (EV) solution—once hailed as the inevitable future—is now facing a harsh reality check. EVs, while promising in terms of emissions reduction, suffer from inherent limitations tied to the monumental challenge of improving battery efficiency at the pace needed for widespread adoption. The sheer scale of progress required to match even the incremental improvements in engine efficiency, especially within the constraints of current battery technology, is simply too great. Not only does it demand massive breakthroughs in energy density, but it also faces the daunting challenge of building out an entirely new infrastructure for charging and supply chains.
In contrast, the Budack cycle’s compatibility with existing infrastructure and resources means it can be rolled out rapidly, yielding tangible improvements in efficiency and performance almost immediately. The EV promise, reliant on transformative changes in energy and infrastructure, is now increasingly viewed as a costly gamble, while advancements in combustion technology offer a far more pragmatic and timely solution.
Toyota sure makes it clear with the 1:6:90 rule. When I wrote about hybrids 11 months ago
(https://alchristie.substack.com/p/hybrids-are-a-pretty-good-compromise?) I didn't even know about Toyota's rule. I should change the title. Hybrids aren't a compromise at all - they're far superior than all electric. I was thinking they would seem a compromise in regards to emissions, but now I know that BEVs don't really save on emissions when you look at the whole picture.
It's complicated, that's why Toyota's 1:6:90 rule is garbage. It's all about the application, the grid mix, the material sources, the type of vehicle and how it is used. BEVs can be the most energy efficient transportation method, including in a cradle-to-grave analysis. They can also be the least efficient.
I don't really see that electrification of Transportation is about emissions, apart from air pollution inside cities. It's ALL ABOUT how to stretch out our Oil supply, in particular our diesel supply, before the crunch occurs. And it will occur. I give it ten years, and then look out, if we don't start preparing, like now.
I would take what Toyota claims with a grain of salt. These are the grifters who have been pushing Hydrogen Fool Cell Vehicles for the past 25yrs. And still have the audacity recently to push the even more idiotic H2 ICE vehicle:
The Unfortunate Truth About Toyota's Hydrogen V8 Engine, Engineering Explained:
"Toyota partnered with Yamaha to develop a hydrogen powered V8 engine, derived from the 5.0L V8 used on the Lexus RC F. The engine produces 450 horsepower by burning hydrogen, and thus has no direct carbon emissions. Unfortunately, there's a big problem with hydrogen combustion vehicles, as this video will demonstrate."
I don't know where they get their 1:6:90 rule from, but it sounds like BS to me. I think they are just talking about battery materials. The materials in a BEV are not much more than that of a PHEV or an HEV. Depending on application. Maybe 20% more at most. In some cases less materials, if you are making vehicles for low energy applications.
Note that is ALL ABOUT THE BATTERIES. The EV drive is far superior to the ICE drive which is why everything ICE is moving towards hybrids. And every bad thing you can say about BEVs (=batteries) you can amplify by a factor of at least 10X in talking about Wind/Solar/Battery Utility Storage. That is where the insanity and economic destruction really lies. BEVs are comparatively minor, almost trivial.
I'm all for the Free Market. No mandates. No subsidies. If you want to buy an BEV, PHEV or ICE vehicle, go for it. Whatever your preference is. I drive a Toyota ICEV. That's what I wanted. Let the market sort things out.
You made a fundamental error confusing energy *density* with energy *efficiency*. An ICE engine is only some 20% efficient at converting gasoline's energy into motion, while a BEV is some 80% efficient converting electricity to motion.
Perhaps you can point out the exact passage you are referring to. Maybe there is a typo I can correct.
*ICE engines have roughly 30 % thermodynamic efficiency, that is, the energy content of the fuel is converted to roughly 30 % work, the rest is waste heat.
*Energy density of a fuel and devices is reviewed here, I am fairly certain that this is accurate:
The Joule-er’s Accountant, Part 2: Energy Density and Nuclear Power
Great update. Kudos to Toyota for following then science, not The Science!
Thanks for the comment Andy, true. Maybe Toyota is the "anti-vaxxer" of the car business. 🤔😎
Nice pun in your title! Thank you for reminding people that combustion engines also improve over time. Climate activists like to discuss about battery and solar panel improvements, but they often implicitly assume that competing technologies do not improve over time.
I’ve previously shown that, under most circumstances, buying the hybrid option of a Toyota ICE pays for itself quickly: https://open.substack.com/pub/debunkingthedebunkers/p/the-invisible-electric-vehicle-revolution.
Great to hear from you Tian, that is an excellent data rich article you wrote and simple too! 😁
This Canadian company, Edison Motors, started out converting logging trucks to HEVs which is a excellent application of hybrid tech. Mostly they are hauling logs from mountains down into valleys which is dangerous and terrible on brakes. Using regenerative braking actually charges the battery up on the downhill trip. The same is true of mining trucks hauling from mountain ore bodies or coal seams. You may not need any fuel energy, gravitational potential energy is sufficient.
Now they are branching out into hybridizing snowplows and oil service rigs.
https://www.youtube.com/@EdisonMotors/videos
If the numbers work...without subsidies ?
They own a logging truck company and have hybridized their own vehicles, because it pays off.
I love the innovation of regenerative braking.
That’s a great use case of batteries in trucks. Thank you for sharing.
Toyota is impressive in their commitment to hybrid tech over the pure electric vehicle hype.
EVs have a limited place as short trip 2nd (or 3rd) cars for those with a dedicated change spot garage or driveway).
That said, EVs have some brutal hidden costs.
EVs absolutely DEVOUR tires. This can be mitigated by choosing non-performace tires, but EV weight and the laws of physics are not changing.
In cold weather, expect range reductions of 25% +. Extreme cold (<15° F) requires constant charging if parked for long periods. Tesla's Model 3 battery FAQ states:
"If you allow the Battery to discharge to 0%, other components may become damaged or require replacement (for example, the low voltage battery). In these cases, you are responsible for repair and/or transporting expenses. Discharge-related expenses are not covered by the warranty or under the Roadside Assistance policy."
Battery replacement is a pricey requirement at around 10 years. The price is the equivalent of transmission or two in an ICE car.
Great handle, Depleted U!. Fan of A-10s as well.
You pretty much distilled it with those points. Along the same lines, EV pick-up trucks are probably the worst offenders. Good for hauling leaves (maybe). And forget about AC!
China is moving to all BEVs. They are now up to 37% of their light duty vehicle sales. That's not due to subsidies and government mandates. What does China care, they're building coal power plants like there is no tomorrow. A lot of people just like them better.
In China people don't drive long distances as is much more common than in America. So that greatly reduces the range problem. So they use the less expensive LiFePO4 batteries which use much less critical minerals and also have longer lifetimes albeit lower energy densities.
Forbes and MIT recent reports give a contrasting picture -
China is struggling with overcapacity and low uptake and a diminished market worldwide (?).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/10/03/chinese-ev-firms-are-suffering-losses/
That's happening a lot in China (and elsewhere) due to a severe economic downturn, (thank you Overlords for your Covid Plandemic). Fewer people can afford vehicles and I imagine even in China the low end is dominated by ICE vehicles, what people can afford.
It's complicated. I've read that China has a large oversupply of EVs, so apparently they're not selling that well.
Yep. European brands suffering too - Porsche is in deep trouble with almost nil Taycan sales and recalls over there. The Chinese are now buying their own cars
Excellent, simply excellent!
It's interesting that even the hard core green writer of Steve's Substack agrees that the middle ground of hybrids seems to be winning the fight. My son just bought a hybrid C-RV.
https://open.substack.com/pub/stevehanley/p/sales-of-100-fossil-fueled-cars-are?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23kggy
Nice article, very interesting. So often disruption is accompanied by unwarranted value destruction as incumbents do foolish things out of fear or to appear more cutting edge than they are. Sometimes the most prudent course of action is to keep doing what you have been doing, and not interrupt your competition while it makes crippling errors.
Volkswagen has just unveiled a breakthrough in combustion technology that could reshape the performance and efficiency of turbocharged gasoline engines. Enter the "Budack" cycle, a twist on the well-known Atkinson cycle, designed to push the boundaries of what’s possible in engine optimization.
At its core, the Budack cycle is deceptively simple: instead of the conventional early intake valve closure seen in the Atkinson cycle’s compression stroke, Volkswagen's innovation brings this early closure to the intake stroke itself. This seemingly small shift reduces the amount of air the piston needs to compress, slashing energy losses and boosting fuel efficiency.
The payoff is clear. With less air to compress, the engine can operate more efficiently, yet still maintain performance when needed. That’s where the magic of variable camshafts comes in. Under high loads, the camshafts extend valve timing to keep the intake valves open longer, unleashing additional power when the engine demands it. The Budack cycle, in essence, delivers a harmonious blend of fuel economy and punchy performance—offering a new standard for modern combustion engines.
Meanwhile, the electric vehicle (EV) solution—once hailed as the inevitable future—is now facing a harsh reality check. EVs, while promising in terms of emissions reduction, suffer from inherent limitations tied to the monumental challenge of improving battery efficiency at the pace needed for widespread adoption. The sheer scale of progress required to match even the incremental improvements in engine efficiency, especially within the constraints of current battery technology, is simply too great. Not only does it demand massive breakthroughs in energy density, but it also faces the daunting challenge of building out an entirely new infrastructure for charging and supply chains.
In contrast, the Budack cycle’s compatibility with existing infrastructure and resources means it can be rolled out rapidly, yielding tangible improvements in efficiency and performance almost immediately. The EV promise, reliant on transformative changes in energy and infrastructure, is now increasingly viewed as a costly gamble, while advancements in combustion technology offer a far more pragmatic and timely solution.
Thanks for the share Pablo!
*VW needs something fast and efficient as they could go bust in the near future*
The diesel emissions scandal and pivot to EV debacle leaves them deeply wounded and captive to German unions.
One article of many:
From China Woes To EV Troubles, VW Faces Rocky Road
https://www.barrons.com/news/from-china-woes-to-ev-troubles-vw-faces-rocky-road-29c38408
Physics versus Ideology will always eventually win.
Toyota sure makes it clear with the 1:6:90 rule. When I wrote about hybrids 11 months ago
(https://alchristie.substack.com/p/hybrids-are-a-pretty-good-compromise?) I didn't even know about Toyota's rule. I should change the title. Hybrids aren't a compromise at all - they're far superior than all electric. I was thinking they would seem a compromise in regards to emissions, but now I know that BEVs don't really save on emissions when you look at the whole picture.
Great article Al, thanks for stopping by..
I didn't realize that Toyota offered such an extensive battery warranty!
It's complicated, that's why Toyota's 1:6:90 rule is garbage. It's all about the application, the grid mix, the material sources, the type of vehicle and how it is used. BEVs can be the most energy efficient transportation method, including in a cradle-to-grave analysis. They can also be the least efficient.
I don't really see that electrification of Transportation is about emissions, apart from air pollution inside cities. It's ALL ABOUT how to stretch out our Oil supply, in particular our diesel supply, before the crunch occurs. And it will occur. I give it ten years, and then look out, if we don't start preparing, like now.
Toyota could learn a lot from you. Hopefully they’ll listen to you
Excellent article - THANKS!
Welcome friend, glad you stopped by!
I do wonder how much of Toyota’s decision has to do with the grid situation in their homeland of Japan.
Post Fukushima, resources were tight, making the whole EV “transition” there even more difficult than in other countries.
Interesting 🤔 thought! Yes, a prudent mindset on a resource challenged island
prevails.
In the meantime, Japan is working overtime to restart and update nuclear power capacity.
Indeed! Another restart just made the news!
https://substack.com/@greenleapforward/note/c-80634452?utm_source=activity_item
Great news 👍
Yes, a prudent mindset on a resource challenged island is beneficial.
In the meantime, Japan is working overtime to restart and update nuclear power capacity.
I would take what Toyota claims with a grain of salt. These are the grifters who have been pushing Hydrogen Fool Cell Vehicles for the past 25yrs. And still have the audacity recently to push the even more idiotic H2 ICE vehicle:
The Unfortunate Truth About Toyota's Hydrogen V8 Engine, Engineering Explained:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJjKwSF9gT8
"Toyota partnered with Yamaha to develop a hydrogen powered V8 engine, derived from the 5.0L V8 used on the Lexus RC F. The engine produces 450 horsepower by burning hydrogen, and thus has no direct carbon emissions. Unfortunately, there's a big problem with hydrogen combustion vehicles, as this video will demonstrate."
I don't know where they get their 1:6:90 rule from, but it sounds like BS to me. I think they are just talking about battery materials. The materials in a BEV are not much more than that of a PHEV or an HEV. Depending on application. Maybe 20% more at most. In some cases less materials, if you are making vehicles for low energy applications.
Note that is ALL ABOUT THE BATTERIES. The EV drive is far superior to the ICE drive which is why everything ICE is moving towards hybrids. And every bad thing you can say about BEVs (=batteries) you can amplify by a factor of at least 10X in talking about Wind/Solar/Battery Utility Storage. That is where the insanity and economic destruction really lies. BEVs are comparatively minor, almost trivial.
I'm all for the Free Market. No mandates. No subsidies. If you want to buy an BEV, PHEV or ICE vehicle, go for it. Whatever your preference is. I drive a Toyota ICEV. That's what I wanted. Let the market sort things out.
You made a fundamental error confusing energy *density* with energy *efficiency*. An ICE engine is only some 20% efficient at converting gasoline's energy into motion, while a BEV is some 80% efficient converting electricity to motion.
Hello Darrell,
Perhaps you can point out the exact passage you are referring to. Maybe there is a typo I can correct.
*ICE engines have roughly 30 % thermodynamic efficiency, that is, the energy content of the fuel is converted to roughly 30 % work, the rest is waste heat.
*Energy density of a fuel and devices is reviewed here, I am fairly certain that this is accurate:
The Joule-er’s Accountant, Part 2: Energy Density and Nuclear Power
https://thejoulethief.substack.com/cp/150128778
Any ICE engine, old or new, can run on carbon neutral e-fuels.
Hello Craig, thanks for the comment. Can you please explain what a "carbon neutral" fuel is and why it is carbon neutral?
I get a sense from the snarky tone of your question that you already think you know the answer. But just google what Porsche is doing in Chile.
Always open to learning, was interested in your definition and understanding, even if we don't agree.
Wrote extensively on Porsche e-fuels here.
https://tucoschild.substack.com/p/redux-porsches-green-fuel-gambit
Thank you for your support!