How Toyota EVaded the EV Debacle and Saved Billions
Prescient Toyota avoided massive EV market losses with it's simple 1:6:90 rule
Above: Prius hybrid
Tuco’s Child Preface
Most major car companies worldwide have suffered tens of billions of dollars in losses due to voluntary and forced EV adoption. Subsidies have dried up, consumers are disinterested, and the tide has gone out, leaving most manufacturers standing high and dry in their birthday suits, and left with massive EV inventories, moribund factories, and laid off workers.
Much has been written about this over the last few years, including Robert Bryce’s recent article: Ford Lost Another $1.2 Billion in 3Q on EVs, and Thomas Shepstone’s recent article I Wanted to Buy A Ford, But Not So Much After This!
Chinese and German (VW) EV manufacturers are also in financial trouble per recent Forbes and Barron’s articles, and may eventually be the biggest bagholders worldwide, as EVs are abandoned and hybrids gain traction.
The problems with EVs are quite simple. Firstly, magical thinking and massive taxpayer subsidies cannot overcome the basic laws of physics and thermodynamics.
In simple terms, mechanical energy, such as kinetic energy, can be completely converted to thermal energy by friction, but the reverse is impossible. In our physical world, we can only be more efficient, and the Japanese are particularly adept at that!
Notwithstanding the devastating environmental costs associated with EV battery manufacturing, EVs are 30 % less efficient than ICE vehicles over their lifecycle. This is largely because ICE powered vehicles carry a high energy density fuel onboard, and directly burn it, which is more efficient in comparison to the long chain of events and losses realized in the manufacturing and charging of an EV. More details may be found in the article below:
For EVs to possibly compete with ICE vehicles, they will need batteries with energy densities at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than what exists now. An article that discusses energy density with K.T. Lynn, “The Joule-er’s Accountant, Part 2: Energy Density and Nuclear Power” is illustrative of this concept.
Finally, the global warming argument for EVs is moot, as “magically” replacing every car on the planet with an EV will have little to no effect on CO2 levels, per DOE and EPA and private industry data, and will likely increase CO2, not decrease it. An article that discusses this is found below:
How Toyota EVaded the EVisceration and Saved Billions
Toyota avoided billions of dollars in EV losses using common sense and tried and true hybrid technology. In particular, Toyota engineers abide by basic and sound engineering principles, and ascribe to the Second Law of Thermodynamics which teaches that we can only become more efficient, as almost all processes are irreversible.
The Toyota culture of efficiency is illustrated by company internal documents (shown below) which describe it’s 1:6:90 rule, a rule which states that the same amount of raw material used to generate 1 fully electric vehicle can be used to make 6 plug-in hybrids or as many as 90 hybrid cars. In addition to the smaller requirement for raw materials, Toyota estimates that these 90 hybrid cars combined offset 37 times the carbon emissions than a single EV.
Above: Toyota document describing the 1:6:90 rule.
Toyota’s ICE Future: Hybrids and More Efficient Engines
As mentioned prior, Toyota engineers abide by basic and sound engineering principles, and ascribe to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which teaches us that we can only become more efficient, as almost all processes are irreversible. To that end, Toyota has a number of interesting and promising engine technologies that will be released soon. These new engines may push past 40 % thermodynamic efficiency!
Above: efficient and sporty.
The future: Toyota’s engineering and go it alone approach despite the EV pressures and mandates has resulted in the creation of a new breed of thermally efficient engines that can run on a variety of fuels, including conventional gasoline, as well as “carbon-neutral” options such as synthetic e-fuels, biodiesel, and hydrogen. For those interested in Toyota’s upcoming engine technologies, I refer to this interesting article:
Great update. Kudos to Toyota for following then science, not The Science!
Nice pun in your title! Thank you for reminding people that combustion engines also improve over time. Climate activists like to discuss about battery and solar panel improvements, but they often implicitly assume that competing technologies do not improve over time.
I’ve previously shown that, under most circumstances, buying the hybrid option of a Toyota ICE pays for itself quickly: https://open.substack.com/pub/debunkingthedebunkers/p/the-invisible-electric-vehicle-revolution.