The Fall of Volkswagen: a Double-Down Debacle
Teetering on bankruptcy - Diesel Deception and now EVisceration
Above: muddied future - first diesels and now EVs.
Introduction
The dire German and VW economic tailspin has recently gotten more press coverage as Germany's deindustrialization accelerates. This is due to destructive policies such as the now 20 year old Energiewende and the shutting down of nuclear power plants, which increased the cost of electricity by 30 %.
VW is the “canary in the coal mine” for German industry and has suffered billions in losses, from Dieselgate and now the adoptation of EVs and abandonment of ICE vehicles.
VWs vertical integration production scheme is particularly injurious. VW solely controls the engineering and manufacturing of VW EVs from the ground up, ranging from proprietary software to propietary batteries and battery factories and to the final buggy (pun) product.
This inefficient approach has contributed to the large losses on each EV VW sells, if they can sell them, as uptake has cratered worldwide. Bloomberg recently posted an excellent video overview of the VW issues below:
Above: VW Bloomberg video.
Der Spiegel has also recently reported on the woes at VW, including a most recent EV hacking embarrassment: “car movement data from 800,000 electric cars and contact information for the owners were exposed unprotected on the internet”. Barron’s recently published the piece: “From China Woes To EV Troubles, VW Faces Rocky Road” which further outlines the issues VW faces.
The Beginning, Debacle 1: VW’s Diesel Deception
How did VW get themselves into this predicament? It all started in 2005, 20 years ago !
Per published timeline, in 2005, Volkswagen executives wanted to increase VWs embarrassingly low market share in the United States as part of a plan to become the biggest car company in the world. To do this, VW resolved to use fuel-efficient diesel engines as a way to compete with Toyota.
But engineers soon realized that a newly developed diesel motor could not meet stricter American emission standards, so they got “creative” with Bosch, a major supplier, who developed a software code that would ‘fool’ the emissions testers when the vehicle was undergoing emissions testing.
VW’s “Dieselgate” was born in 2005, but it was not until September 2015 that Volkswagen was actually accused of installing illegal software on diesel powered cars to evade standards on diesel emissions. Fast-forward with $30+ billion or so in fines to date, VW’s Diesel Deception precipitated an avalanche of hugely expensive lawsuits worldwide, which continue even today, and has affected every car maker worldwide that manufactures or manufactured a diesel vehicle.
Dieselgate WOW ! A staggering $30 Billion in fines and costs according recent worldwide estimates.
Aftermath: the VW Dieselgate Sprockets Humiliation unfortunately catalyzed the destruction of the diesel market worldwide and the uptake of efficient and torquey diesel cars and trucks.
After the brutal shaming, VW “reshaped” their company and pivoted to “clean” EVs, featuring yet another deception with regards to the true nature of EV CO2 emissions, which is the ultimate subject of this article.
Above: I am so depressed: $30 Billion lost.
Debacle 2: VW’s EVisceration and the Discovery of the VW EV Emissions Cover-up.
Stumbling all over themselves in a panic, VW executives did an all-in pivot to EVs after Dieselgate, as outlined in the Forbes article: “From Emissions Cheater To Climate Leader: VW’s Journey From Dieselgate To Embracing E-Mobility”.
As mentioned prior, VW has since suffered from an unrelenting decline in EV sales and assembly line shutdowns, as Germans and people worldwide have realized that overweight EVs have limited range, suffer expensive breakdowns, and are particularly costly to run because of ultra-expensive German electricity.
Low cost Chinese EVs supported by PRC government subsidies are also crushing VW, and VW EVs themselves have a variety of issues, such as buggy software and catching on fire, per videos below:
Above video: VW EV’s buggy software cause Dieter Trauma
Above video: just another VW day, an ID 3 caught fire.
The VW EV Emissions Cover-up: Missing VW Lifecycle Analyses (LCAs) Reveal that BEVs are Not “Climate Friendly”
“You would have thought that VW would have learned with Dieselgate, but apparently thay had not.”
In our investigations, we discovered two previously “published” VW Lifecycle Analyses (LCAs) that greenwash the actual VW EV CO2 emissions. These LCAs were subsequently removed by VW from the Internet.
In what follows, we compare the two rediscovered VW EV “cradle to grave” emissions LCAs, and then compare those to a Real World and Real Car Volvo LCA, which showed that actual BEV GHG emissions are far higher than previously thought due to the battery manufacturing.
The two VW EV LCAs previously published that had DISAPPEARED from the internet are:
1) “From the Well to the Wheel”
2)“E-mobility is already this much more climate-neutral today”
Above: Arte Johnson from Laugh-In. Who remembers ?
Found! The Two Missing VW EV Lifecycle Analyses (LCAs)
“From the Well to the Wheel” found at web.archive.org (the interweb is forever)
and
“E-mobility is already this much more climate-neutral today” reprinted in some part at electriccarsreport.com
What do the Two Missing VW LCAs Say about EV Emissions? The Cover-up.
First VW LCA: “From the Well to the Wheel”
As shown below, compared to the banned Golf Diesel, the Golf EV (discontinued in 2020) produces almost 50 % more CO2 in the production phase due to the battery (see lower blue part of the bars)
As shown below, in the “Climate Footprint” to achieve the so-called carbon neutral crossover point, and neutralize all the planetary CO2 destruction from the battery, you have to drive the Golf EV 125,000 km (77,671 miles) using a realistic energy mix, not “pure renewables” such as wind or hydro.
As shown below, the CO2 equivalent emitted over a lifetime depends on electricity source, with wind power only being the lowest or about half of the diesel emissions. Note that the total CO2 emitted by BEVs from common energy mixes of coal, oil, nuclear, and some renewables approach exceed diesel (!) (top of the bars).
Second VW LCA: “E-mobility is already this much more climate-neutral today”
The new VW EV ID.3 is compared to the banned Golf Diesel and a petrol Golf in this LCA. The new VW EV ID.3 still produces almost 50 % more CO2 in the production phase due to the battery, but VW promises a 40 % reduction in that CO2 in the future. Exciting. Not.
So-called carbon neutral crossover point is not presented, or that we can find.
The CO2 emitted over a lifetime depends on electricity source. This LCA CO2 data is presented in ton CO2 equivalent, while VW LCA 1 reports in grams/km. Whatever the case, eyeballing the data shows only modest reductions in CO2 over the lifetime of the car.
The Two VW LCA Conclusions
The battery contributes at least 50 % more CO2 emissions in the production phase compared to diesel or petrol cars.
To reach the so-called greenhouse gas or GHG neutral or crossover point, you need to drive the Golf EV 125,000 km or 77,671 miles compared the banned VW Golf diesel and likely the petrol car too, using the most common energy mixes.
If you live in Norway or some other Fantasy Land, and charge the EV with electrons from wind or hydro, then you can feel better about your CO2 emissions, and your contribution to GHGs is at least 50 % lower than other energy mixes.
How does the Real Car-Real World Volvo LCA Compare to the VW LCAs ?
Volvo reports that GHG emissions from making the Volvo EVs are 70% higher than petrol models due to battery manufacturing. VW is 50 % higher compared to evil diesel. The Volvo 70 % number is due to the larger battery vs. the little Golf EV.
The Volvo best case GHG breakeven point for greenhouse gases is 30,450 miles using electricity from only “renewable” energy from Norway for example. VW?
Volvo BEV GHG breakeven using the EU 28 mix or global mix of electricity, i.e. coal, gas, nuclear, etc with a sprinkling of “renewables” is 47,845 miles and 68,350 miles respectively. VW breakeven is 125,000 km or 77,671 miles
VW and Volvo LCA Final Synopsis
The batteries, from the production phase, contribute from about 50 to 70 % more CO2/GHGs vs ICE vehicles over the cars lifetime (200,000 km), mostly depending on battery size and other materials involved.
The GHG breakeven can be as low as 30,450 miles if you live in Norway and charge your car with electricity from wind, hydro, etc. More realistically, you will be charging with a Rest of the World mix of energy, and the GHG breakeven may occur from about 48,000 miles to about 77,000 miles.
Importantly, all the hand wringing about BEVs, LCAs and GHGs won’t make any real difference in reducing GHGs anyway. How can that be? See next section.
End game: replacing all cars in the world with BEVs will make little difference in global CO2/GHG emissions
Why? Because automobiles and light trucks only contribute a small fraction of GHGs ( ca. 7 %) to the global total per EPA, BP, IEA and other data consolidator studies.
Per above, 11.9% of global GHG gases (CO2 mostly) arise from road transport. This includes emissions from burning of petrol and diesel from all forms of road transport which includes cars, trucks, lorries, motorcycles and buses.
Importantly, 60 % of road transport emissions come from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses); and the remaining 40 % is from road freight (lorries and trucks).
The Arithmetic: 0.60 * 12 x 100 = 7.2 % GHGs from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses)
Final Thoughts
1) The VW LCAs were likely pulled from the InterWeb because they do not portray EVs in a positive GHG emissions light and they are also compared to VW diesels which represent VWs greatest humiliation. The VW Golf EV was discontinued.
2) The Real Car Volvo LCA is hard to find online as well, but is a mostly apples to apples comparison.
3) Replacing all of the world’s cars with EVs to lower GHGs is a worthless exercise - the slice of the GHG pie is miniscule compared to the other emitters, while the environmental and social costs of EV battery production are almost incalculable. EVs and batteries, and solar and wind further enable the world’s predator, China.
Above: remember Laugh-In?
Two friends of mine have electric pickup trucks, big beasts, a perfect combination of virtue signaling and conspicuous consumption.
Fantastic article by the way. Does anyone acknowledge the gaping hope in carbon payback that is created when a new battery has to replace the old one? And that old battery is replete with hazardous materials that are expensive and time and energy intensive to extract before shipping off to a country with no emissions controls.