Volkwagen's EV Emissions Cover-up: Missing Lifecycle Analyses Reveal Negligible CO2 Reductions
From VW, Who Brought You the Diesel Emissions Scandal
Part 1: Background
Remember VW’s “Dieselgate”, where VW was caught cheating on the emissions of their “Clean Diesels” using a Bosch software tweak?
It cost VW over $15 Billion to settle in the USA
Recent estimates are now a staggaring $38 Billon worldwide !
Dieter’s Dieselgate Update
Former Audi boss convicted of fraud..
but ex-VW CEO Martin Winterkorn is off the hook due to poor health: “I am endlessly sorry' brand is tarnished”
Post Dieselgate PIVOT!
VW goes all in with clean and sanitized EVs
See Forbes: “From Emissions Cheater To Climate Leader: VW’s Journey From Dieselgate To Embracing E-Mobility”
“Daddy, I want a VW EV just like in the movies”
Part 2: The Two Missing VW Lifecycle Analyses
Given all the Warm and Fuzzy Dialogue and the throng of new BEVs from VW, we decided to review two “published” VW Lifecycle Analyses (LCAs) and compare those to the Real Car Volvo LCA which revealed a few issues with actual BEV GHG emissions.
We discovered that the two VW EV LCAs previously published disappeared from the InterWeb:
1) “From the Well to the Wheel”
2)“E-mobility is already this much more climate-neutral today”
Part 3: Found! The Two Missing VW EV LCAs
1) “From the Well to the Wheel” found at web.archive.org (the interweb is forever)
and
2)“E-mobility is already this much more climate-neutral today” reprinted in some part at electriccarsreport.com
(Kudos to Tian Wen of Debunking the Debunkers)
Part 4: What do the Two Missing VW LCAs Conclude?
First LCA : “From the Well to the Wheel”
As shown below, compared to the banned Golf Diesel, the Golf EV (discontinued in 2020) produces almost 50 % more CO2 in the production phase due to the battery (see lower blue part of the bars)
As shown below, to achieve the so-called carbon neutral crossover point, and neutralize all the planetary CO2 destruction from the battery, you have to drive the Golf EV 125,000 km (77,671 miles) vs. the banned VW Golf diesel, using a realistic energy mix, not “pure renewables” such as wind or hydro.
As shown below, the CO2 emitted over a lifetime depends on electricity source, with wind power only being the lowest or about half of the diesel. Note that the total CO2 emitted by BEVs from common energy mixes of coal, oil, nuclear, and some renewables approach and exceed diesel (!) (top of the bars).
Second LCA: “E-mobility is already this much more climate-neutral today”
The new VW EV ID.3 is compared to the banned Golf Diesel and a petrol Golf in this LCA. The new VW EV ID.3 still produces almost 50 % more CO2 in the production phase due to the battery, but VW promises a 40 % reduction in that CO2 in the future. Exciting.
So-called carbon neutral crossover point is not presented, or that we can find.
The CO2 emitted over a lifetime depends on electricity source. This LCA 2 CO2 data is presented in ton CO2 equivalent, while VW LCA 1 reports in grams/km. Whatever the case, eyeballing the data shows only modest reductions in CO2 over the lifetime of the car.
Note that the petrol car gives off more bad gas over it’s lifetime than the evil diesel, how can that be?
Part 5: The VW LCAs Conclusions
The battery contributes at least 50 % more emissions in the production phase compared to diesel or petrol cars.
To reach GHG neutral or crossover point, you need to drive the Golf EV 125,000 km or 77,671 miles compared the banned VW Golf diesel and likely the petrol car too, using the most common energy mixes.
If you live in Norway or some other Fantasy Land, and charge the EV with wind or hydro, then you can feel better about your CO2 emissions, and your contribution to GHGs is at least 50 % lower than other energy mixes. Maybe your GHG breakeven is closer to 30,000 miles like Volvo reports?
NOTE: too bad Germany closed all it’s nuclear power plants - they could be charging all these EVs.
Part 6: How does the Real World Volvo LCA Compare to the VW LCAs ?
Volvo reports that GHG emissions from making the Volvo EVs are 70% higher than petrol models due to battery manufacturing. VW is 50 % higher compared to evil diesel. The Volvo 70 % number is due to the larger battery vs. the little Golf EV.
The Volvo bestcase GHG breakeven point for greenhouse gases is 30,450 miles using electricity from only “renewable” energy from Norway for example. VW?
Volvo BEV GHG breakeven using the EU 28 mix or global mix of electricity, i.e. coal, gas, nuclear, etc with a sprinkling of “renewables” is 47,845 miles and 68,350 miles respectively. VW breakeven is 125,000 km or 77,671 miles
Part 7: General LCA Conclusions
The batteries, from the production phase, contribute from about 50 to 70 % more GHGs vs ICE vehicles over the cars lifetime (200,000 km), mostly depending on battery size and other materials involved.
The GHG breakeven can be as low as 30,450 miles if you live in Norway and charge your car with electricity from wind, hydro, etc. More realistically, you will be charging with some Rest of the World mix of energy, and the GHG breakeven may occur from about 48,000 miles to about 77,000 miles.
Importantly, all the hand wringing about BEVs, LCAs and GHGs won’t make any real difference in reducing GHGs anyway. How can that be? See next section.
Part 8: Basic Math Shows BEVs will Make Little Difference in Global GHG Emissions
Why? Because automobiles and light trucks only contribute a small fraction of GHGs ( ca. 7 %) to the global total per EPA, BP, IEA and other data consolidator studies.
Numbers Don’t Lie Baby Greta
A) Per above, 11.9% of global GHG gases (CO2 mostly) arise from road transport. This includes emissions from burning of petrol and diesel from all forms of road transport which includes cars, trucks, lorries, motorcycles and buses.
B) Importantly, 60 % of road transport emissions come from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses); and the remaining 40 % is from road freight (lorries and trucks).
C) The Arithmetic
0.60 * 12 x 100 = 7.2 % GHGs from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses)
Part 9: Final Thoughts
1) The VW LCAs were likely pulled from the InterWeb because they do not portray EVs in a positive GHG light and they are also compared to VW diesels which represent VWs greatest humiliation. The VW Golf EV was discontinued.
2) The Real Car Volvo LCA is hard to find online as well, but is a mostly apples to apples comparison.
3) Replacing all of the world’s cars with EVs to lower GHGs is a worthless exercise - the slice of the GHG pie is miniscule compared to the other emitters, while the environmental and social costs of EV battery production are almost incalculable. EVs and batteries, and solar and wind further enable the world’s predator, China.
Hot Off the Press: VW EV Sales in Tailspin
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I enjoy reading you and Robert Bryce on energy issues. I am a 64 yo practicing anesthesiologist. I discuss these issues with anyone that will listen. Even among my many conservative friends, very few are familiar with Substack. They are too busy playing golf. I do my best to spread the word, and again, I much appreciate all your presentations.
Thank you for this excellent presentation. In exposing the realities of dirty green energy, we can only hope that a duped population will gradually see the data and realize this green energy push is a de- growth power play by leftists to control your life and lower your standard of living, and has nothing to do with a cleaner earth. Wake up people!