I will never buy an EV. Have seen much info similar to the great information you present here. More people need to get educated. Dirty green energy is part of the de growth Marxist agenda. Let the scales be even and the abundance of cheap fossil fuel, which continues to get cleaner with new technology, will continue to make the ICE king. The only way this changes is by the totalitarians banning ICE, and crony capitalism that subsidizes EVs. In an even match, the hands down winner is ICE. Absolutely no EV for me.
Even assuming zero emission electric sources, the electric Golf needs to be driven 50,000 km before having lower lifetime emissions. Otherwise it is 125,000 km (not sure about the energy mix assumptions though).
I would like to understand how many miles (or kms) an electric car needs to be driven before its total life emissions equal those of a diesel or gasoline car, assuming (a) zero-carbon energy, (b) the same energy mix as the US or EU last year, and (c) the Chinese energy mix which is heavily dependent on medium quality coal.
I'd want to take into account (at least) the following sources:
- The Volvo study on which you reported
- The 2019 VW study that got deleted from their website
It seems that even assuming zero-carbon electricity, both the Volvo study and the 2019 VW study estimate that one needs to drive at least 50,000 km before the electric car becomes more "emissions friendly" than the diesel or gasoline car.
The new VW page is unfortunately very imprecise in its statements. It says "An electric vehicle registered as a new car in 2025 will generate 32% fewer CO2 emissions over its lifetime than a modern diesel car" but doesn't explain its assumptions for getting at that number. 32% fewer emissions is nothing to dismiss but isn't marvelous either.
Someone on Substack posted a few weeks ago very different conclusions than ours. Some of their reasoning might have been sound, but some was dubious (they basically wrote "oh well, it's too difficult to estimate CO2 emitted during construction, so let's just not count it" No kidding.). I'll try to find back that article.
Compare; As close as we can to Volvo study using Euro or rest of the world mix of electricity -
we know that zero carbon electricty is a unicorn, but a good fantasy for best case, such as Norway
China is a free for all and data is suspect so eliminate
In any case, replacing all of the worlds cars with EVs to lower GHGs or just the most polluting countries is a worthless - the slice of the GHG pie is miniscule compared to the other emitters- the environmental and social costs of EV battery production are almost incalculable
Road transport (11.9%): emissions from the burning of petrol and diesel from all forms of road transport which includes cars, trucks, lorries, motorcycles and buses. Sixty percent of road transport emissions come from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses); and the remaining forty percent from road freight (lorries and trucks).
0.60 * 12 = 7.2 % GHGs from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses)
Interesting!
I would be interested in comparing the two.
I will never buy an EV. Have seen much info similar to the great information you present here. More people need to get educated. Dirty green energy is part of the de growth Marxist agenda. Let the scales be even and the abundance of cheap fossil fuel, which continues to get cleaner with new technology, will continue to make the ICE king. The only way this changes is by the totalitarians banning ICE, and crony capitalism that subsidizes EVs. In an even match, the hands down winner is ICE. Absolutely no EV for me.
Tucos, a few years ago VW did a similar study, IIRC comparing a diesel to a BEV Golf. Do you know how Volvo’s results compare to VW’s?
VW has taken down that study from their website, I am looking for a copy to refer to for a future comparison.
Let me know if you can find it.
Regards,
TC
Holy moly! You're right! I had bookmarked https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/04/from-the-well-to-the-wheel.html# but it now answers 404!
Hide the ball is the game after VW Diesel Emissions Scandal
Really interesting. Yes I’ll check if I can find something.
Fortunately the wayback machine has a copy from last month: http://web.archive.org/web/20230523153722/https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/04/from-the-well-to-the-wheel.html#
Even assuming zero emission electric sources, the electric Golf needs to be driven 50,000 km before having lower lifetime emissions. Otherwise it is 125,000 km (not sure about the energy mix assumptions though).
lets dig deeper and co-author an article
I would like to understand how many miles (or kms) an electric car needs to be driven before its total life emissions equal those of a diesel or gasoline car, assuming (a) zero-carbon energy, (b) the same energy mix as the US or EU last year, and (c) the Chinese energy mix which is heavily dependent on medium quality coal.
I'd want to take into account (at least) the following sources:
- The Volvo study on which you reported
- The 2019 VW study that got deleted from their website
- This new VW page: https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/en/electric-and-hybrid/discover-electric/the-carbon-footprint-of-electric-cars.html
It seems that even assuming zero-carbon electricity, both the Volvo study and the 2019 VW study estimate that one needs to drive at least 50,000 km before the electric car becomes more "emissions friendly" than the diesel or gasoline car.
The new VW page is unfortunately very imprecise in its statements. It says "An electric vehicle registered as a new car in 2025 will generate 32% fewer CO2 emissions over its lifetime than a modern diesel car" but doesn't explain its assumptions for getting at that number. 32% fewer emissions is nothing to dismiss but isn't marvelous either.
Someone on Substack posted a few weeks ago very different conclusions than ours. Some of their reasoning might have been sound, but some was dubious (they basically wrote "oh well, it's too difficult to estimate CO2 emitted during construction, so let's just not count it" No kidding.). I'll try to find back that article.
What would you like to understand?
Compare; As close as we can to Volvo study using Euro or rest of the world mix of electricity -
we know that zero carbon electricty is a unicorn, but a good fantasy for best case, such as Norway
China is a free for all and data is suspect so eliminate
In any case, replacing all of the worlds cars with EVs to lower GHGs or just the most polluting countries is a worthless - the slice of the GHG pie is miniscule compared to the other emitters- the environmental and social costs of EV battery production are almost incalculable
https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector#transport-16-2
Road transport (11.9%): emissions from the burning of petrol and diesel from all forms of road transport which includes cars, trucks, lorries, motorcycles and buses. Sixty percent of road transport emissions come from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses); and the remaining forty percent from road freight (lorries and trucks).
0.60 * 12 = 7.2 % GHGs from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses)
So, cars are a tiny slice of the GHG pie
double check my calcs , please