I was just getting worn out with all the EV talk and along comes this article - bringing some interesting ideas to the whole - ICE vs EV agenda.
It's a long read, but being the nerd I am, I feel it is worth the time.
I have never thought about buying an EV but if I had, after reading this I probably would not consider it. Of course, if I was an thinking about being an EV owner I probably won't be reading this anyway!
from the text - "After carefully studying the history of energy, we have yet to find an example where a new technology with inferior energy efficiency has replaced an existing, more efficient one."
For me this describes wind, solar and batteries - but also works for EV's.
Great article, there will be bits of it I will be stealing... borrowing.. if you don't mind... - thanks.
Doesn't it seem the *most* desirable ICE is the one that is long-lived and repairable? So many cars are nearly irreparable because whole (expensive) modules need to be replaced instead of a mechanics ministrations. So, even modern ICEs with their over-reliance on gadgetry (and the planned obsolescence inherent in electronica) are a horror show. Why can't we just have cars from the year 2000, with some hypermiling tech sprinkled in?
Great article! In my humble opinion, looking at the larger picture... we really need to stop pursuing technologies simply to reduce carbon dioxide... as it doesn't cause warming. It's a by product of warming and essential for life on earth. It always seems that we accept the problem as truth and argue about the supposed solution instead.
Agreed. Perfecting the technologies we already have an increasing their efficiencies leads to the same result without the insane cost and timeline. If we can continue to refine natural gas combined cycle technology, the cost and lead time of the upgrades will be considerably shorter and less expensive than starting from scratch. And I even dare to say it will reduce “carbon emissions” (gasp).
Great article. Your calculations regarding the carbon consequences of Norwegian electric cars are quite enlightening. As long as car batteries are largely manufactured using Chinese coal, it is difficult to call Electric vehicles “Green.”
A small quibble with your assumption: “Burning natural gas (high entropy) to generate electricity (low entropy) is only 40-50% efficient.” The latest CCGT plants offer efficiencies of 64+%. This would substantially lower the disadvantage of EVs, and potentially entirely make up the gap.
Thank you Michael for stopping by and your comments and support. Point well taken! The Law's of Thermodynamics teach us that we can only really be more efficient, as most if not all modern processes are irreversible.
As a synthetic chemist, I would venture to say that burning hydrocarbons for fuel is a terrible waste in many ways because so many useful materials are derived from them. We need to use that precious resource to build out a nuclear infrastructure ASAP, and then figure out the next baseload energy source.
Also I wonder that since the Chinese are going whole hog/super hardcore for this if they will see this issue. Of course for them, the issue has nothing to do with the environment, just supply security.
As a Chem Eng with 42 years of process and energy development:analysis, I have come to the same conclusion. I am trying to summarize all the info in. Science Fair like display to reach propel in a different way.
Norway residents' 2nd vehicles as EVs creates exactly the same paradox as rent controls. Subsidies, or in the case of rent control, non-subsidized price controls, distort the market and create perverse incentives for wealthier people to rent 2nd apartments at little relative cost and to live in larger units at lower cost, thereby reducing the net available square footage of the market as a whole, and driving up costs for everyone else. Welcome to the wonderful world of price control market distortion.
What of EVs temperature based bleeding of electricity in the batteries in cold weather at rest or in motion? Surely that is not accounted for in analysts' calculations of EV efficiency across a given market or at large
I was just getting worn out with all the EV talk and along comes this article - bringing some interesting ideas to the whole - ICE vs EV agenda.
It's a long read, but being the nerd I am, I feel it is worth the time.
I have never thought about buying an EV but if I had, after reading this I probably would not consider it. Of course, if I was an thinking about being an EV owner I probably won't be reading this anyway!
from the text - "After carefully studying the history of energy, we have yet to find an example where a new technology with inferior energy efficiency has replaced an existing, more efficient one."
For me this describes wind, solar and batteries - but also works for EV's.
Great article, there will be bits of it I will be stealing... borrowing.. if you don't mind... - thanks.
Hello JF,
As always, glad you stopped by!
Borrow freely and spread the word.
My Best,
TC
Doesn't it seem the *most* desirable ICE is the one that is long-lived and repairable? So many cars are nearly irreparable because whole (expensive) modules need to be replaced instead of a mechanics ministrations. So, even modern ICEs with their over-reliance on gadgetry (and the planned obsolescence inherent in electronica) are a horror show. Why can't we just have cars from the year 2000, with some hypermiling tech sprinkled in?
Great article! In my humble opinion, looking at the larger picture... we really need to stop pursuing technologies simply to reduce carbon dioxide... as it doesn't cause warming. It's a by product of warming and essential for life on earth. It always seems that we accept the problem as truth and argue about the supposed solution instead.
Agreed. Perfecting the technologies we already have an increasing their efficiencies leads to the same result without the insane cost and timeline. If we can continue to refine natural gas combined cycle technology, the cost and lead time of the upgrades will be considerably shorter and less expensive than starting from scratch. And I even dare to say it will reduce “carbon emissions” (gasp).
Absolutely excellent!
Appreciate it Dean, thanks much.
Great article. Your calculations regarding the carbon consequences of Norwegian electric cars are quite enlightening. As long as car batteries are largely manufactured using Chinese coal, it is difficult to call Electric vehicles “Green.”
A small quibble with your assumption: “Burning natural gas (high entropy) to generate electricity (low entropy) is only 40-50% efficient.” The latest CCGT plants offer efficiencies of 64+%. This would substantially lower the disadvantage of EVs, and potentially entirely make up the gap.
https://www.gevernova.com/gas-power/products/gas-turbines/h-class-gas-turbines
Thank you Michael for stopping by and your comments and support. Point well taken! The Law's of Thermodynamics teach us that we can only really be more efficient, as most if not all modern processes are irreversible.
As a synthetic chemist, I would venture to say that burning hydrocarbons for fuel is a terrible waste in many ways because so many useful materials are derived from them. We need to use that precious resource to build out a nuclear infrastructure ASAP, and then figure out the next baseload energy source.
Also I wonder that since the Chinese are going whole hog/super hardcore for this if they will see this issue. Of course for them, the issue has nothing to do with the environment, just supply security.
As a Chem Eng with 42 years of process and energy development:analysis, I have come to the same conclusion. I am trying to summarize all the info in. Science Fair like display to reach propel in a different way.
I appreciate your erudite comments, thanks for stopping by!
Another home run, TC!
I appreciate it Thomas, keep up the great work as well.
Norway residents' 2nd vehicles as EVs creates exactly the same paradox as rent controls. Subsidies, or in the case of rent control, non-subsidized price controls, distort the market and create perverse incentives for wealthier people to rent 2nd apartments at little relative cost and to live in larger units at lower cost, thereby reducing the net available square footage of the market as a whole, and driving up costs for everyone else. Welcome to the wonderful world of price control market distortion.
What of EVs temperature based bleeding of electricity in the batteries in cold weather at rest or in motion? Surely that is not accounted for in analysts' calculations of EV efficiency across a given market or at large