Yes, you’re correct that models are merely assumptions fed into a computer. Having built relatively simple forecasting models for the agricultural business, it’s humbling to see how a slight changes can have big impacts. We would be proud if the model would be off by 1% of the forecasted values, in a 1 year timeframe. But over 5-10 years, that 1%/ per year compounds quickly and the next thing you know, you can be way off. Especially if you misread when and where the business cycles change. And that’s with a good model based on some of the most accurate data available that is carefully measured.
And that’s nothing compared to the vast complexity of our climate where we have difficulty measuring impacts in the real world.
Data ‘slippage’ from the real world, missed cycle cycles, and the margin of error can easily compound until the model is not more use than a pile of garbage. Especially if you don’t check assumptions.
It is useful to default back to first semester 101 principles in science and business. That coupled with some problem solving skills and experience can go a long way I have found.
Unfortunately, basic problem solving skills are becoming less common due to our debased education system more focused on DEI and ESG, and the overwhelming influence of the internet and media.
Yes, you’re correct that models are merely assumptions fed into a computer. Having built relatively simple forecasting models for the agricultural business, it’s humbling to see how a slight changes can have big impacts. We would be proud if the model would be off by 1% of the forecasted values, in a 1 year timeframe. But over 5-10 years, that 1%/ per year compounds quickly and the next thing you know, you can be way off. Especially if you misread when and where the business cycles change. And that’s with a good model based on some of the most accurate data available that is carefully measured.
And that’s nothing compared to the vast complexity of our climate where we have difficulty measuring impacts in the real world.
Data ‘slippage’ from the real world, missed cycle cycles, and the margin of error can easily compound until the model is not more use than a pile of garbage. Especially if you don’t check assumptions.
Well said, thanks for the comment!
It is useful to default back to first semester 101 principles in science and business. That coupled with some problem solving skills and experience can go a long way I have found.
Unfortunately, basic problem solving skills are becoming less common due to our debased education system more focused on DEI and ESG, and the overwhelming influence of the internet and media.
Agreed. Problem solving and critical thinking seem to be missing from today’s obsession with green energy.
It’s unfortunate for children going through schools today that don’t emphasize those skills.
Excellent! Peter Ridd was on Alexandra Marshall today talking about coral:
https://watch.adh.tv/alexandra-marshall/season:1/videos/peter-ridd-alexander-voltz-monday-18-december-2023